Gang rivalry dynamics via coupled point process networks
نویسنده
چکیده
We introduce a point process model for inter-gang violence driven by retaliatory behavior. For this purpose we use a coupled system of state-dependent jump stochastic differential equations to model the conditional intensities of the directed network of gang rivalries. The system admits an exact simulation strategy based upon Poisson thinning. The model produces a wide variety of transient or stationary weighted network configurations and in certain parameter regimes rivalry interdependency is shown to have surprising consequences for policing strategies. We investigate the stability of gang rivalries in Los Angeles by fitting the model to gang violence data provided by the Hollenbeck district of the Los Angeles Police Department.
منابع مشابه
Gang Rivalry Dynamics via Coupled Point Process
We introduce a point process model for inter-gang violence driven by retaliation – a core feature of gang behavior – and multi-party inhibition. Here, a coupled system of statedependent jump stochastic differential equations is used to model the conditional intensities of the directed network of gang rivalries. The system admits an exact simulation strategy based upon Poisson thinning. The mode...
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